Credit: WWMT
When a team stumbles to the end of the season the way the Detroit Red Wings have the past two years, it makes sense to focus on the biggest weaknesses as areas for improvement. There was no more glaring weakness at the end of the 2024-25 campaign than Detroit’s penalty kill unit, which was one of the worst performing units in the history of the league, allowing a goal on pretty much 3 out of every 10 times they were forced to play short handed.
Picking up where we left off on the article What to Make of the Yzerplan?, we’re going to start digging into a few specific areas where the team needs to make improvements in order to achieve Steve Yzerman’s stated goal of building towards a long window of playoff hockey which will increase the odds of eventually winning a Stanley Cup.
Now before we get too deep into the weeds, it’s worthwhile to add a bit of context here: while the Red Wings were more likely than just about any team in league history to surrender a goal while playing a man down, they were one of the least penalized teams in the NHL this past season. Their penalty kill was so bad, however, that they still finished in the bottom 6 in the league in goals allowed while playing down a skater.
The fact they take so few penalties is a positive, the problem is they were historically bad at killing them. The median PK this season was Edmonton’s at 78.2%, so if the Red Wings committed the exact same number of infractions but were just bang average on the PK they would have surrendered 15 fewer goals, which would place them in the top 5 in fewest power play goals conceded. So there’s a pretty clear benefit to improving the PK.
To that end, let’s kick off this exercise by taking a look at Detroit’s top PK’ers this past season. We’ll review which players are doing a good job, and which ones are most responsible for the poor performance. From there we’ll look at some potential options in free agency to help the Red Wings improve their penalty killing unit.
Top Defenders on the Penalty Kill
I’m going to focus on players who - on average - play 60 seconds or more on the PK per game. For this past season there are 5 defenders for Detroit who fit this criteria.
Here they are.
Mo Seider plays the heaviest minutes and got the toughest match-ups, so it’s no surprise his Corsi For relative number is negative. For reference Jacob Trouba, who was linked in trade talks with Detroit last season, had a CF% rel with Anaheim of -1.7 while averaging 2:15 per game while short handed. Alex Pietrangelo with Vegas averages 2:04 short handed and had a CF% rel of -2.6. Jaccob Slavin, who plays the most minutes on the top PK% team in Carolina, averages 2:57 per game and has a poor CF% rel of -6.6 but only allows 6.4 GA/60.
So Seider’s CF% rel is about what you would expect for a quality #1 D who absorbs the most minutes on the PK. Looking at the 2023-24 PK unit, Jake Walman played big minutes and put up solid advanced stats, with a CF% rel of +1.1 and goals against per 60 of 6.6. It seems clear the organization wanted to get rid of Walman at any cost as quickly as possible, but his role on the PK was never suitably replaced.
With Walman gone, the PK relied heavily on Ben Chiarot and Justin Holl, with Holl being the worst performer on defense, as the ice gets badly tilted when he’s PK’ing. The Holl signing never made any sense, and the less time he spends on the penalty kill, the better.
With Ben Chiarot, he’d probably be fine over the final year of his contact if you gave him fewer minutes with easier matchups, as was the case when Walman was playing heavier PK minutes. He’s far from ideal, but adding a high quality PK’er would diminish Chiarot’s role, thereby improving the unit as a whole. Get Chiarot closer to 1:00 or less on the PK and my guess is he’d be serviceable.
The bottom line is paying north of $8 million per season for two substandard PK’ers is not a great use of cap space. At least Chiarot can kind of hold his own at even strength on a team coming out of a rebuild. Both players have modified no-trade clauses, which would complicate matters when it comes to getting out from beneath the final year of these contracts.
Top Forwards on the Penalty Kill
Now let’s do the same thing with the forwards. Here are the PK’ers up front who played 1 or more minutes per night killing penalties.
Like the defenders, the free agent signings at forward have struggled with their PK duties. Both JT Compher and Tyler Motte in particular have been riding the struggle bus. Andrew Copp’s Corsi looks good, but his GA/60 is pretty lackluster. Copp had consistently good CF% and FF% rel stats with Winnipeg, so I think he can be part of the solution here.
Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel are the dominant PK’ing forwards for a Tampa team that gave up the fewest power play goals this season and their CF% rel were +1.1 and +5.2 respectively. Philip Danault, Trevor Moore and Quinton Byfield play the most PK minutes for the Kings at forward and have CF% rel of -0.7, -1.9, and +8.3.
Given Quinton Byfield plays a big role on the Kings PK unit, it’s worth considering whether Marco Kasper can become a key contributor for the Red Wings? While he only played 34 seconds per game on the PK during his rookie campaign, his underlying numbers are promising: he put up a +4.3 CF% rel and gave up 9.4 GA/60. So I think it’s reasonable to expect his minutes to grow next season.
Another interesting thing I saw when looking at the data is Michael Rasmussen was a fixture on the PK in 2023-24, averaging 1:46 minutes per game. His advanced stats were solid, as he played 133 minutes short handed and his CF% rel was +3.7 and his FF% rel was +2.7. His 5.4 goals allowed per 60 was best among guys who played 1:30 or more per game on the PK. His role on the PK was reduced sharply this season, down to 48 seconds per game, so there’s certainly a case to be made for Rasmussen to be given more PK time next season.
Goalie PK Save Percentage
Cam Talbot is currently penciled in as the #1 goalie for Detroit next season, and his recent PK save percentage across multiple teams is pretty damn impressive.
This past season Talbot’s PK save percentage fell off a cliff to .805, which leads me to believe the PKers in front of him were hanging him out to dry. With one more year under contract, I would expect Talbot’s PK save percentage to rebound if Todd McLellan and crew can upgrade the core PK’ers and provide better structure.
Petr Mrázek’s PK save percentage is all over the place, but he did post a solid .963 in 2022-23. So once again, it’s largely going to be the guys in front of them who will determine how good both goalies look in net.
How to Improve the PK
Let’s take a look at some free agents who may be able to help Detroit fix their PK unit. I don’t want to focus on trade scenarios, as that’s a fool’s errand. At least by focusing on free agents, we are identifying players who - as of this writing - are going to be free to sign with any team this summer.
Perfect Fit
First let’s consider guys who would be a perfect fit, e.g would fill a hole in the lineup while also having strong PK metrics. There is a bit of projecting here, for instance I think Simon Edvinsson and Mortiz Seider will form a dominant first pairing, but the coaching staff may prefer to play them on separate lines. With that caveat in mind, let’s remember this exercise is mostly for shits and giggles, and as such shouldn’t take it too seriously.
Free Agent Defender: Vladislav Gavrikov
I’ve previously made the case for trying to sign Vladislav Gavrikov this summer, as he played 3:17 short handed per night for the Kings and had a -0.9 CF% rel. Put Gavrikov next to Seider next season and the PK improves dramatically.
As an added bonus, Gavrikov would become a cornerstone of what would shape up to be one of the best 5v5 defenses in the league. Looking at relative Fenwick percentages - which serve to identify which players make the biggest net benefit for their team while they are on the ice - Mo Seider, Vladislav Gavrikov and Simon Edvinssson all rank in the top 10 across the league amongst d-men who take at least 50% of their face-offs in the defensive zone.
Detroit isn’t likely to have have a 90-point, all world 1C at any point in the next 15 years, but if Gavrikov decides he wants to play under Todd McLellan again next year, the Wings would have one of the top defenses in the league, and this is before you add in Axel Sandin-Pelikka, who would be expected to feast on lots of offensive zone starts and play on what is already one of the top 5 power play units in the league.
Given all of this, Gavrikov would be a perfect fit as he’d immediately improve Detroit’s top 4 on defense for however long he’s signed. He also wouldn’t need any time on Detroit’s power play, which is fine because the power play is already one of the top units in the league. He would however, get boatloads of minutes on the PK where he’d been remarkably effective while playing under Todd McLellan in Los Angeles.
Vlad Gavrikov’s PK Advanced Stats
Other than one bad season in 2021-22 when he was 26, his penalty kill stats are largely positive, with two of his best seasons coming when he played under Todd McLellan. To put these advanced stats into perspective, adding Gavrikov would be like adding a second Mo Seider to the PK: they both average 200ish minutes per season and their Corsi and Fenwick stats are similar.
There’s a lot to like about Gavrikov should he hit free agency.
Other Free Agent Defenders
Ivan Provorov: plays top pairing minutes, so he’d be very pricey despite the fact he’s not going to play on the top pairing in Detroit. His PK advanced stats improved this season, but they were consistently poor for the previous 5 seasons.
Dmitry Orlov: has never played big PK minutes, but did see an increase this year and his advanced stats over the years have often been positive. Plays second pairing minutes 5v5 so he’d be a fit, but given the fact the Canes use him as their third defender on the PK he wouldn’t be ideal given we are focusing on improving the biggest weakness from last season. We’re looking for someone to who’s a lock to contribute on PK1.
Free Agent Forward: Mitch Marner
There will obviously be no shortage of suitors should Mitch Marner hit free agency, but at least Steve Yzerman let it be known in his recent presser that he’s prepared to spend the type of money it would cost to acquire a player of Marner’s caliber. So let’s play along and say the Red Wings are able to sign the forward to play in Detroit.
Signing Marner would likely signal the end of Patrick Kane’s time as a Red Wing as there would be a ton of overlap when it comes to placement in the lineup and involvement on the power play.
As far as even-strength goes, Marner currently generates 0.9 goals and 2.2 assists per 60 minutes, which is well in excess of Kane’s 0.5 goals and 1.2 assists. It’s important to factor in Marner’s linemates in Toronto into these comparisons, but that’s nearly twice as much production as Kane while playing 5v5.
For this past season, Marner averaged 1.5 goals and 6.7 assists per 60 while playing with the man advantage, but Kane more than holds his own, averaging 3.4 goals and 4.8 assists. In this case when you factor in Marner’s high quality teammates, Kane’s statistics are more impressive.
But what we’re talking about with this exercise is PK’ing, and Marner is the clear winner here as he PKs quite a bit while Kane never sets foot on the ice when his team is down a man. Marner has consistently averaged over 2 minutes per game while the Leafs play short handed, and his relative Corsi and Fenwick numbers have been rock solid for 3 out of the past 5 seasons. Were he to sign with Detroit, he would immediately improve the Red Wings’ PK1 unit.
Mitch Marner’s PK Advanced Stats
If you are going to pay top dollar to acquire Mitch Marner, at least you are getting a player who is a strong contributor to both specialty teams in addition to piling up points while playing 5v5.
Other Free Agent Forwards
Sam Bennett: while the 2nd line center would provide plenty of physical play and give Detroit admirable depth down the middle of the lineup, the Panthers do not use him on the PK. Given we are focusing on fixing the PK, Bennett is not an answer for this particular exercise.
Nikolaj Ehlers: while Ehlers would fit a clear need on the left side while playing 5v5, he’s never been used as a PK’er for the Jets. So again, not a fit as far as what we’re looking for.
It’s entirely reasonable to wonder whether the Red Wings can fit both Gavrikov and Marner under the salary cap, even with an increasing upper limit to the cap. There’s also the fact Simon Edvinsson comes off his entry-level deal after next season, so money could be tight.
However this exercise exists to identify guys who are currently set to hit the market and would fit a clear need on multiple fronts; both Gavrikov and Marner do just that.
Patch Jobs
Of course getting the perfect fit is a dream scenario, and far more often than not the dream scenario doesn’t happen. So for this next part of the exercise we’ll look to find guys who, while they don’t fill holes in key positions while also being key additions to the PK, they could be brought in primarily as PK merchants.
Free Agent Defender: Ryan Lindgren
Ryan Lindgren has taken plenty of stick from the Social Media-based analytics crowd, but the Avs fans have liked what they’ve seen since the defender was acquired via trade. Lindgren is coming to the end of a 1 year contract and it remains to be seen how much interest there is across the league for his services.
With the Avs, he’s playing the third most minutes on the PK, but his underlying advanced stats are very strong. His CF% rel while with the Avs is +8.3 while his FF% rel is +9.7. This is a big improvement over his time with the Rangers, where his numbers were consistently in the negative.
The allure with Lindgren here is he’d play on the third pairing 5v5 and be counted on as a PK merchant, so it shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive to sign him this summer. The Avs look to be giving him 2nd pairing minutes at even strength and the ice gets tilted against the Avs when he’s playing, so ideally he’d be sheltered on the third pairing. The question is how much will it cost to acquire a guy who should get the easiest match ups 5v5?
He’s been averaging 1:51 short handed per game with Colorado, so there’s a good chance he’d be able to eat a chunk of Ben Chiarot’s minutes, which would push Chiarot down to PK2. Over the years Lindgren’s averaged 170 or more minutes short handed, so he’s been a fixture on the ice when playing down a man. His consistently negative advanced stats with the Rangers is a concern, as he was playing top PK minutes alongside Jacob Trouba.
He’s pretty much generated 100+ blocks the past 4 seasons and consistently puts up 70+ hits per season. So there’s some risk here, but he would likely be inexpensive to acquire. He’s also 27 years old, so there’s certainly room for his game to continue to develop.
Lindgren isn’t given any PP time with the Avs, so he’d be a decent fit.
Free Agent Forward: Steven Lorentz
Lorentz is a journeyman forward, bouncing between Carolina, San Jose, Florida and Toronto over the past 4 seasons. He only has two seasons playing around 100ish minutes on the PK despite being 29 years old.
He played 1:19 on the PK with San Jose in 2022-23 and he’s getting 1:08 this season with the Leafs. He’s a 4th liner who plays on the left wing and at center and is currently on a 1 year, $775k deal, so he’d be a bargain.
He’s not a guy who plays top PK1 minutes, so he’s not perfect by any stretch, but the two times he was given 1:00 or so of PK time he was competent. So in this scenario you could spread out the PK minutes among an assortment of Michael Rasmussen, Marco Kasper, Andrew Copp, JT Compher and Lorentz. Like Lindgren on defense, he also generates a pretty solid number of hits.
So with the patch job guys, neither is an ideal solution, but they would be expected to be solid contributors on the PK at a very reasonable price.
Steer Clear
There are of course guys who are set to hit free agency who are looking for that last big contract. Here are a couple guys who, while they are superficially good fits, are unlikely to work in Detroit.
Free Agent Defender: Aaron Ekblad
While Ekblad does play big minutes on the PK for the Panthers, you would be paying a premium for a RHD who wouldn’t be an obvious fit at 5v5 for the duration of what is likely to be a contract with a lot of term and AAV. He’s also proven unreliable: in four of the past 5 seasons he’s played 61 games or fewer, with the past two seasons being in the low to mid 50s.
Then there’s the fact his advanced PK stats over the past few years have been uniformly bad.
He had two exceptional seasons as a PK’er but that was 5-6 years ago. Ekblad simply isn’t a fit.
Free Agent Forward: Brandon Tanev
There’s a very small case to be made for signing Tanev if you can get him for signed to a reasonable contract, but he’s coming off a contract that paid him $3.5 million per season for 6 years, which is very rich for a guy who plays on the 4th line while dishing out the hits and needs easier match ups when PK’ing.
With Seattle, Tanev was the Kraken’s top PK’ing forward, but he put up the worst CF% rel of those who got regular PK’ing shifts. His advanced stats in Seattle would easily be the worst on the Red Wings by way of comparison, and would likely make you long for Motte and Compher as PK’ers.
With Winnipeg, he’s been moved down to PK2 where his CF% rel has shown clear improvement. He’s only getting 9:43 minutes at even strength during the playoffs, so there’s not much to like here other than the fact he’s been a physical player throughout his career, consistently dishing out 100+ hits per season.
Signing him would be similar to signing Justin Holl, and that has been an unqualified disaster of a signing.
Let’s not do that again.
Fixing the PK
So with all of this out of the way, here is what I think would be much improved PK units. Let’s start off with best case scenario.
Adding Gavrikov and Marner greatly improves your first unit. Mo continues to fill his role as one of the guys who plays the most minutes short handed, and we return Rasmussen back to his role as one of the primary PK’ers amongst the forwards.
Here’s the second unit.
Edvinsson plays fairly big minutes like last season, while Chiarot sees his ice time trimmed to more manageable levels with easier matchups. Marco builds off his strong start last season and the hope is Copp returns to form with a better cast of characters surrounding him and better structure for the unit as a whole.
If you can’t sign Gavrikov, there may be a case for signing Ryan Lindgren as a stop gap, as he’s played plenty of PK minutes and looked like a quality PK’er in Colorado. If you miss out on Marner, which is the most likely scenario, there isn’t a clear upgrade here, but it may make sense to add Steven Lorentz as he’s proven to be a capable PK’er for two teams and would be very cheap to sign.